I have always liked to think that I understood how the stock market works. I mean, it's not like I only started reading about the equities market and finance related news recently. I have had this interest since watching my dad following the prices daily on the teletext when I was 9. On days that the stocks he invested in went up in price, he rejoices. When prices came down, somehow his mood for the day changed. Of course this is understandable. Nobody wants to lose money. Back then I didn't understand the meaning of long term and short term investing.
Of course, many things happened since, and I would think that I have matured much more when it comes to understanding the market. As an observer, you watch how the market goes through cycles of ups and downs. You get all excited when the business report section of the news comes up on TV. They even have interesting financial jargons to give a human face to the market. When the market rises and there seems to be nothing that can stop its upward stride, it is called a bull. When the market free falls like in a bungee jump, it is called a bear. Interesting eh? How come a bull is associated with "upwards, forward, higher" but bear is associated with "falling, down, lower"? Don't people know that a bear is one of the most agile animals man has ever faced, and can outrun most animals? Maybe it's the association to a big, cuddly teddy bear. You know, the one with that big fat tummy and fat cheeks that make you smile and want to hug it.
There are many investing strategies that one can read from books, and other resources. The ultimate investor of it all (God of Investing, as how Chinese would put it) is none other than Mr Warren Buffet. Simply put, he prefers a strategy of not diversification, but choosing carefully for that company which he believes has great earning potential, and better than good management team, and to focus his investments on a small pool of such companies. This is of course against the notion of diversifying to minimize your exposure to risk. But he thinks that only fools diversify because you could not fully understand how a company works.
I think that, of course, this strategy sounds simple, and with homework done, you could very well make a nice profit. But for a beginner investor, an amateur like myself, I would say that you need balls of steel to invest like Buffet. And loads of money to back you up too, in case you fail. Let me futher explain why...
You see, it is easy to comprehend what you read in most investing strategies book, that one should buy low and sell high. Who the heck doesn't comprehend that? But when you are IN the market, when you have a significant sum of money in the market, your emotions would naturally be influenced by market movements. When you see your paper profit goes up in a stock, you keep hoping to see it go that 1 cent higher, and then the next... and then the next... I guess that's human greed.
On the other hand, when market trend reverses, and suppose the market drops rapidly (and i mean rapid with acceleration greater than 9.8m/s that it makes you feel like your balls are hanging in the air), the investment tip is to stay calm. Analyse what causes the market to fall. I suppose people who have been through many cyclical ups and downs in the stock market can and will tell you that the market needs a major correction once in awhile. But trust me, it is not easy to stay calm. You are faced with a dilemma, should you wait to see if stock prices rebound? But what if it continues with the massive drop? Then you start to think back, relax, if you're investing for the long term, then don't be disturbed by short term fluctuations. However, you're also concerned, what if the prices stay low for many years? Like what happened since 1997 till 2003.
The thing about stock market is that, even though finance and numbers are very technical, the core of the market is about humans. Humans are the ones agreeing on the buy and sell price, not the stocks themselves. You may wonder sometimes, why is there a need for a correction? Why can't stock just keep going higher and higher? It seems like people feel better if they associate the higher price with the assets and earnings of a company. And of course with good news. When stock analysts keep predicting that there will be doom and gloom when the market keeps going up, eventually it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
So my conclusion is, i need to understand human behaviour and thinking more to better see why the market reacts in a certain way. Maybe it won't help in investing for the long run, but it helps to rationalize the market.
Saturday, August 04, 2007
Thursday, August 02, 2007
how is LA like compared to Singapore- Part 1
It's about 1 month that i've been in LA. I guess it's not a period long enough to make a fair comparison, but this is my first impressions of the place compared to Singapore.
1) Transportation - LA the car-crazy city
No matter how good or nice a place is, the convenience of getting to places should rank among the higher priorities on the ease of living. In LA, most people drive. It does have a metro system consisting of subway trains and buses. However, currently it seems like the network of subway is not extensive enough for people to just leave their car at home and go to places. I guess buses would have a wider network, but then again, it's always more difficult to get to somewhere by bus if you're new to that place. What about cabs? Don't even think about it, cabs here are uncomfortable and extremely expensive. I took a cab once from my office to catch a concert at the Greek theater which is 6 miles away. It costs $35 freaking dollars. I can rent a good car for that price for a day. The way i see it, you're paying for the service of being driven around. What is Singapore cab fare compared to this? peanuts? Anyway, this supervisor in New York actually said, in California, buildings and roads are pretty much developed horizontally, but in NY, they're developed vertically. So that explains... i guess. However, if you're staying here for a year or more, then it makes more sense to get a car.
Singapore definitely wins in this aspect.
LA 0 - 1 SIN
2) Weather
It's premature to sum up the weather here in LA, as i will only be here during the summer. During the day, the sun is searing hot. The temperature is about 31 degrees celcius, comparable to Singapore, but somehow, you feel the sun penetrating into your skin, roasting you. However, the weather at night is just perfect. Cool to about 21-22 degrees, it's really like being in an air-conditioned room, but with more open and clean air to breathe. And there's very low humidity all through the day, means there's no sweat. And there's no rain here. Since i arrived, i haven't seen a drop of freaking rain. It's like rain is a rare event. Maybe people will go out and celebrate when they see rain.
To me, i prefer the weather here in the evening, but the cloudy weather in singapore is still nicer. It's a tie.
LA 0 - 1 SIN
3) Places to visit, things to do
I think LA wins hands down in this. So far I've been to 2 concerts within a month, by very famous groups, Incubus and Dream Theater.
Here's Dream Theater in action, John Petrucci's on your right most.
You don't get that in Singapore. Also, there is Universal Studios theme park, right next to where i work and Disneyland and warner studios within driving distance. It's also a 4-5 hours drive to Las Vegas to have fun on weekends. There are also many legendary bars which many famous people have performed in, like House of Blues, along sunset boulevard and beverly. Of course there are bars with live bands performing in Singapore, but don't have famous people performing. In hollywood, there are also interesting places to visit and do, like the kodak theater (home of the Academy Awards) and catching a musical. Or if you feel like it, perhaps drive to San Diego (about 2 hours) or San Francisco (6 hours).
Oh yes, almost forgot to mentioned that I went to a basketball match. It's a wnba match between LA Sparks and San Antonio Superstars. how come the women team have such cheesy names?
The picture on the left is the group of fellow interns in NBC-universal. We were watching from the VIP Suite from the top of the stadium, at Staples Center.
But i really like Vegas. It made me feel that it's a very clever decision by the Singapore government to open casinos in singapore. Just look at this hotel below, Wynn at Las Vegas. I think this group bid for one of the casino license in Singapore, but didn't win. They're one of the best around Vegas.
LA 1-1 SIN
4) Food
For a thoroughbred asian like me, nothing beats asian food. Western food is nice, when i think of big, fat, juicy burgers and steaks, it makes me hungry. I've tried Korean and Thai food here. And they seem to taste more authentic than those you can get in Singapore. But usually this places are slightly more expensive compared to a meal of burgers and fries. How about Chinese food? or our typical hawker fare? haven't tried any so far, which makes me miss the chicken rice, prawn noodles, hokkien noodles. I would say that i'm still more comfortable with getting food in Singapore.
LA 1-2 SIN
to be continued...
1) Transportation - LA the car-crazy city
No matter how good or nice a place is, the convenience of getting to places should rank among the higher priorities on the ease of living. In LA, most people drive. It does have a metro system consisting of subway trains and buses. However, currently it seems like the network of subway is not extensive enough for people to just leave their car at home and go to places. I guess buses would have a wider network, but then again, it's always more difficult to get to somewhere by bus if you're new to that place. What about cabs? Don't even think about it, cabs here are uncomfortable and extremely expensive. I took a cab once from my office to catch a concert at the Greek theater which is 6 miles away. It costs $35 freaking dollars. I can rent a good car for that price for a day. The way i see it, you're paying for the service of being driven around. What is Singapore cab fare compared to this? peanuts? Anyway, this supervisor in New York actually said, in California, buildings and roads are pretty much developed horizontally, but in NY, they're developed vertically. So that explains... i guess. However, if you're staying here for a year or more, then it makes more sense to get a car.
Singapore definitely wins in this aspect.
LA 0 - 1 SIN
2) Weather
It's premature to sum up the weather here in LA, as i will only be here during the summer. During the day, the sun is searing hot. The temperature is about 31 degrees celcius, comparable to Singapore, but somehow, you feel the sun penetrating into your skin, roasting you. However, the weather at night is just perfect. Cool to about 21-22 degrees, it's really like being in an air-conditioned room, but with more open and clean air to breathe. And there's very low humidity all through the day, means there's no sweat. And there's no rain here. Since i arrived, i haven't seen a drop of freaking rain. It's like rain is a rare event. Maybe people will go out and celebrate when they see rain.
To me, i prefer the weather here in the evening, but the cloudy weather in singapore is still nicer. It's a tie.
LA 0 - 1 SIN
3) Places to visit, things to do
I think LA wins hands down in this. So far I've been to 2 concerts within a month, by very famous groups, Incubus and Dream Theater.
Here's Dream Theater in action, John Petrucci's on your right most.You don't get that in Singapore. Also, there is Universal Studios theme park, right next to where i work and Disneyland and warner studios within driving distance. It's also a 4-5 hours drive to Las Vegas to have fun on weekends. There are also many legendary bars which many famous people have performed in, like House of Blues, along sunset boulevard and beverly. Of course there are bars with live bands performing in Singapore, but don't have famous people performing. In hollywood, there are also interesting places to visit and do, like the kodak theater (home of the Academy Awards) and catching a musical. Or if you feel like it, perhaps drive to San Diego (about 2 hours) or San Francisco (6 hours).
Oh yes, almost forgot to mentioned that I went to a basketball match. It's a wnba match between LA Sparks and San Antonio Superstars. how come the women team have such cheesy names?The picture on the left is the group of fellow interns in NBC-universal. We were watching from the VIP Suite from the top of the stadium, at Staples Center.
But i really like Vegas. It made me feel that it's a very clever decision by the Singapore government to open casinos in singapore. Just look at this hotel below, Wynn at Las Vegas. I think this group bid for one of the casino license in Singapore, but didn't win. They're one of the best around Vegas.
LA 1-1 SIN
4) Food
For a thoroughbred asian like me, nothing beats asian food. Western food is nice, when i think of big, fat, juicy burgers and steaks, it makes me hungry. I've tried Korean and Thai food here. And they seem to taste more authentic than those you can get in Singapore. But usually this places are slightly more expensive compared to a meal of burgers and fries. How about Chinese food? or our typical hawker fare? haven't tried any so far, which makes me miss the chicken rice, prawn noodles, hokkien noodles. I would say that i'm still more comfortable with getting food in Singapore.
LA 1-2 SIN
to be continued...
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